Oct 2017 RC Poll Politics Topline

Roanoke College Poll Topline Gubernatorial Election - October 2017

Roanoke College Poll Topline
Gubernatorial Election
October 17, 2017

Hi, I'm____________ and I'm calling from Roanoke College. How are you today/this evening? We're conducting a survey of Virginia residents regarding important issues and your opinion is very important to us. Your responses are confidential.

1. Are you registered to vote in Virginia?

Yes 100%
No [TERMINATE] 0%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the election for governor in November? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

Very likely 87%
Somewhat likely 13%
Not very likely [TERMINATE] 0%
Not likely at all [TERMINATE] 0%

Please tell me if you have a generally favorable or unfavorable impression of the following people or if you don't know enough about them to have formed an opinion:

3. Donald Trump

Favorable 34%
Unfavorable 56%
Mixed 7%
Don't know/Refused 3%

4. Terry McAuliffe

Favorable 41%
Unfavorable 36%
Mixed 8%
Don't know/Refused 15%

5. Ed Gillespie

Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 33%
Mixed 9%
Don't know/Refused 20%


6. Ralph Northam

Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 28%
Mixed 7%
Don't know/Refused 27%

7. Cliff Hyra

Favorable 3%
Unfavorable 6%
Mixed 4%
Don't know/Refused 87%

8. The Republican Party

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 47%
Mixed 14%
Don't know/Refused 4%

9. The Democratic Party

Favorable 45%
Unfavorable 41%
Mixed 11%
Don't know/Refused 3%

7. If the election for governor was held today and you had to decide right now, would you vote for [ROTATE FIRST THREE; READ FIRST THREE ONLY]

Ed Gillespie, the Republican 43%
Ralph Northam, the Democrat 48%
Cliff Hyra, the Libertarian 2%
Undecided [VOLUNTEERED ONLY] 6%
Refused [TERMINATE] 0%

7a. [IF UNSURE] Are you leaning toward voting for a particular candidate-Gillespie, Northam, or Hyra?

Gillespie 2%
Northam 16%
Hyra 2%
Undecided 79%


7b. Imagine that you are at the polling booth right now, about to cast your vote -- who do you vote for?

Gillespie 8%
Northam 8%
Hyra 0%
Undecided 84%

7c. TOTALS INCLUDING "LEANERS" [CALCULATED]

Gillespie 44%
Northam 50%
Hyra 2%
Undecided 4%

8. If the election for lieutenant governor was held today and you had to decide right now, would you vote for [ROTATE FIRST TWO; READ FIRST TWO ONLY]

Justin Fairfax, the Democrat 45%
Jill Vogel, the Republican 42%
Undecided [VOLUNTEERED ONLY] 13%

9. If the election for attorney general was held today and you had to decide right now, would you vote for [ROTATE FIRST THREE; READ FIRST THREE ONLY]

John Adams, the Republican 42%
Mark Herring, the Democrat 47%
Undecided [VOLUNTEERED ONLY] 10%

10. What is the most important issue to you in this election?

Economy--jobs, unemployment, debt, etc. 18%
Taxes 4%
Immigration 7%
Terrorism 2%
Economic inequality 2%
Race relations/Confederate statutes 2%
Crime/police/violence 3%
Abortion 3%
Gun control/gun rights 3%
Pipelines 1%
Budget deficit/ debt 2%
Education 8%
Health care/ Obamacare 16%
Climate change/environment 1%
Honesty/character/corruption 4%
Leadership 2%
Stopping Donald Trump 2%
Transportation/infrastructure 2%
Other 10%
Refused 7%

11. Do you think things in the COUNTRY are generally going in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction 30%
Wrong track 64%
Unsure 6%
Refused 1%

12. Do you think things in the Commonwealth of Virginia are generally going in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction 48%
Wrong track 40%
Unsure 12%
No answer 1%

13. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?

Approve 35%
Disapprove 58%
Mixed 6%
Don't Know/Refused 2%

14. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor of Virginia?

Approve 48%
Disapprove 35%
Mixed 11%
Don't Know/Refused 6%

15. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Approve 10%
Disapprove 80%
Mixed 8%
Refused/Don't Know 3%

16. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, or never?

Just about always 1%
Most of the time 11%
Only some of the time 70%
Never 18%
Unsure 0%
Refused 0%

17. Which of the following statements is closer to your view: Ordinary citizens can do a lot to influence the government in Washington if they are willing to make the effort OR There's not much ordinary citizens can do to influence the government in Washington?

Citizens CAN influence government 57%
Citizens can NOT influence government 41%
Unsure 2%
Refused 0%

18. Thinking about the way things are going in politics today ... on the issues that matter to you would you say your side has been winning more often than it's been losing, or losing more often than it's been winning?

Winning more 23%
Losing more 60%
Wins some, lose some/Equal/Unsure [VOL] 11%
Unsure 6%
Refused 1%

19. When you think about the future of the United States, which do you agree with more: the country's best years are ahead of us or the country's best years are behind us?

Best years ahead 56%
Best years behind 37%
Same/Unsure 7%
Refused 1%

20. Looking broadly at the important issues facing the United States, do you think that Americans are united in facing those challenges or is the nation divided?

United 11%
Divided 87%
Both/Unsure 2%
Refused 0%

21. Which comes closest to your feelings about how the federal government is working? Are you enthusiastic, satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry?

Enthusiastic 3%
Satisfied 15%
Dissatisfied 54%
Angry 26%
Unsure 3%
Refused 0%

Regardless of your vote intention, please tell me if you think Ed Gillespie or Ralph Northam would do a better job as governor on the following issues.

22. Improving the state's economy?

Gillespie 46%
Northam 38%
Equal/Unsure 15%
Refused 1%

23. Health care?

Gillespie 37%
Northam 48%
Equal/Unsure 15%
Refused 1%

24. Bringing more and better jobs to Virginia?

Gillespie 43%
Northam 40%
Equal/Unsure 17%
Refused 1%

25. Dealing more effectively with immigration?

Gillespie 43%
Northam 42%
Equal/Unsure 14%
Refused 1%

26. Education?

Gillespie 37%
Northam 47%
Equal/Unsure 16%
Refused 1%

27. Taxes?

Gillespie 43%
Northam 40%
Equal/Unsure 16%
Refused 1%

28. Issues related to guns?

Gillespie 43%
Northam 43%
Equal/Unsure 14%
Refused 1%

29. How does the Republican Party make you feel? Please answer yes or no for each of the following. [% YES reported.]

Frustrated 31%
Angry 21%
Afraid 17%
Hopeful 14%
Enthusiastic 6%
Proud 9%
Refused 1%

30. How does the Democratic Party make you feel? Please answer yes or no for each of the following. [% YES reported.]

Frustrated 30%
Angry 18%
Afraid 14%
Hopeful 18%
Enthusiastic 9%
Proud 10%
Refused 1%

31. [IF R SAYS FRUSTRATED, ANGRY OR AFRAID] Are the Republican Party's policies so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being? N=489

Yes 60%
No 33%
Unsure 6%
Refused 1%

32. [IF R SAYS FRUSTRATED, ANGRY OR AFRAID ] Are the Democratic Party's policies so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being? N=455

Yes 54%
No 39%
Unsure 7%
Refused 1%

33. Code respondent's sex [NOT ASKED]

Male 49%
Female 51%

34. Region

Southwest Virginia 11%
Southside 8%
Shenandoah Valley 7%
Central Virginia/Richmond 20%
Northern Virginia 31%
Tidewater 24%

35. Thanks so much for your patience. I have a few questions about you for statistical purposes. Are you currently married, living with a partner, divorced, separated, widowed, or have you never been married?

Married 67%
Living with partner 4%
Divorced 7%
Separated 1%
Widowed 5%
Never married 16%
Refused 1%


36. How much education have you completed?

Less than high school 2%
High School 8%
Some college/technical school 23%
Associate's Degree 13%
Bachelor's Degree 31%
Advanced Degree 23%
Refused 0%

37. In what year were you born? [CODED INTO CATEGORIES]

18-29 13%
30-44 23%
45-64 46%
65 or older 18%
Refused 0%

38. Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin?

Yes, Hispanic 3%
No, not Hispanic 96%
No answer 1%

39. What is your race? Are you White, African-American, or some other race?

White / Hispanic / Latino 75%
African-American 20%
Other/multi-racial 4%
Refused 2%

40. I'm going to read several income groups. When I come to the group that includes your annual family income, please stop me.

Less than $20,000 4%
$20,000-$35,000 7%
$35,000-$50,000 13%
$50,000-$75,000 15%
$75,000-$100,000 16%
More than $100,000 36%
Refused 11%

41. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate or conservative?

Liberal 22%
Moderate 36%
Conservative 40%
Other/Unsure 2%
Refused 1%


42. And would you describe your political party affiliation as Democrat, Republican, Independent, some other party or no affiliation?

Democrat 35%
Republican 31%
Independent 20%
Other 10%
Refused 5%

42a. [IF INDEPENDENT, OTHER OR REFUSED] As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic party or toward the Republican party? [RESULTS ARE COMBINED WITH THOSE IN Q. 40]

Democrat 39%
Republican 35%
Neither/Refused 27%

Thank you for your time and have a nice <HOUR1>. If you have any questions or comments about this survey, you may contact Dr. Harry Wilson at (540) 375-2415. You may also contact the Roanoke College Institutional Review Board at (540) 375-24--.