Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Report for Feb. 2026

Consumer sentiment in Virginia improved in February 2026, continuing the gradual recovery that began in late 2024. All three components of the Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment — current conditions, consumer expectations, and overall sentiment — recorded increases relative to November 2025. The most notable change occurred in the Index of Consumer Expectations, which rose from 66.8 to 69.3, its largest single-period gain in more than a year.

Virginia’s sentiment levels also continue to exceed national benchmarks.

The U.S. economy grew at an estimated 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNow model, is currently growing at 3.1% [i]. Additionally, wage growth (3.7%) continues to outpace inflation (2.4%) at the start of 2026, providing real income gains to support consumer spending, which was up 2.4% at the end of 2025. Nationally, the labor market has softened. There is fewer than one job opening (labor demand) for every unemployed person (labor supply), although the unemployment rate remains low (4.3%). In comparison, the Virginia labor market is tighter, with 1.3 job openings for every unemployed person and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. 

Sentiment is buoyed by a strong economy, improving household finances, and resilient wage growth. Twenty-four percent of respondents report that their financial situation is better today than it was a year ago, and 38% say it’s a good time to purchase large, durable goods. The Virginia Index of Current Conditions is 64.7, up half a point since the end of 2025.

The largest gains in sentiment come from expectations. The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations is currently 69.3, up 2.5 since the end of 2025. Close to one-third of Virginians believe their household finances will improve over the year, and 41% believe that the next five years will bear strong economic growth. Ebbing prices, especially for common purchases like gasoline, are softening the pressures on household wallets and permitting them to look ahead. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 2.4%, down from 3.0% one year ago. 

Analysis   

“The February readings suggest that Virginia households are becoming more optimistic about the year ahead,” said Alice Kassens, senior analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and dean of Roanoke College’s School of Business, Economics, and Analytics. “The rise in expectations, now the strongest driver of overall sentiment, indicates that consumers see a positive trajectory of the economy, supported by moderating inflation, solid wage gains, and a tightening state labor market. The improvement comes as Virginia’s newly inaugurated governor begins rolling out early legislative actions and policy priorities. Combined with steady statewide labor market conditions and easing inflationary pressure, these political and economic developments appear to have bolstered consumers’ outlooks for the coming year.”

“Virginia’s sentiment levels also continue to exceed national readings, reflecting the commonwealth’s resilient employment base and relatively stable household finances. While these results point to strengthening consumer conditions heading into the spring, sentiment remains well below pre‑pandemic highs, and households still face elevated prices for many essentials. Overall, the February results point to steady, broad‑based strength in the commonwealth’s economy, with improving expectations suggesting that households see current momentum carrying into the coming months.”

Methodology 

The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between Feb. 9-16, 2026. All data was collected by the Siena Research Institute powered by ReconMR at Siena University in Loudonville, New York. A total of 930 completed interviews were conducted via random telephone calls and texts to 555 Virginians, and 375 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Cellphones constituted 74% of the completed phone and text to web interviews.

Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cellphone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns in Virginia. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE, and the cellphone sample was obtained from Marketing Systems Group (MSG). Cint USA, Inc., facilitated the online panel with completion time and attention check questions used for quality control.

Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions are asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions asking the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses.”

Questions answered by the sample of 930 respondents are subject to a weighted margin of error (including design effect) of plus or minus 3.33% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 3.33 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the margin of error is higher. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error, and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, and age. Weighting was done to match Virginia data in the 2024 one-year American Community Survey (ASC). The design effect was 1.5.

A copy of the questions and all toplines may be found here.

IPOR is an independent, nonpartisan research institute and subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. The Roanoke College Poll is paid for by Roanoke College as a public service.

More information about the Roanoke College Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, senior analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, at kassens@roanoke.edu or the Roanoke College Marketing and Communications Office at rcnews@roanoke.edu.

roanoke.edu/IPOR

[i] This estimate is updated regularly. Value used in this report was pulled 2/24/2026.