Spanberger lead over Earle-Sears narrows

Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 7-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears (46%-39%) in the November election for Virginia governor, according to the Roanoke College Poll. Fourteen percent of likely voters remain undecided, and 1% said they would vote for someone else. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 702 Virginia residents between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.30% among all poll respondents or 4.39% among poll respondents who are likely voters.  Most registered voters reported being very likely to vote (83%) or somewhat likely to vote (12%). 

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid (38%-35%), and Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares (41%-38%) in the race for attorney general. Both leads are within the margin of error. 

Three out of four likely voters (76%) are very certain of their choice for governor, while another 21% are somewhat certain. Half (50%) are very enthusiastic about voting, and 34% are somewhat enthusiastic. Inflation was named by a majority of likely voters (54%) as the most important issue in the campaign, followed by crime (11%), abortion (7%), jobs (6%), and gun control (4%). 

Job Approval, Favorable/Unfavorable, and Directions of Virginia and Nation

Three out of five Virginians (60%) think the country has gotten off on the wrong track, while a slight majority (52%) think the commonwealth is going in the right direction. Both measures are somewhat more positive than the last Roanoke College Poll in May. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating (41%)  improved from May, as did Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (50%). Youngkin’s approval level was closer to the average reported throughout his term.

Youngkin’s favorable rating (50% favorable/42% unfavorable) also rebounded from May. Trump’s is up by 8 points, but was still more negative than positive (41% favorable/57% unfavorable). Spanberger’s rating (44% favorable/38% unfavorable) is slightly more positive than it was in May. The same is true for Earle-Sears (36% favorable/43% unfavorable), with about one-fifth of respondents not offering an opinion for either candidate. 

A Deeper Dive on Trump and the Major Political Parties

The Roanoke College Poll also examined how likely voters  view Trump’s handling of specific issues and which political party they believe is best equipped to handle specific national concerns. Trump’s overall approval (41%) is very similar to his approval rating on individual issues: Economy (43%), Foreign Policy (42%), and Immigration (43%). A plurality of likely voters (45%) think Trump has done worse than they expected in his second term, while nearly equal shares think he has exceeded their expectations (28%) or performed as expected (27%). 

As seen below, respondents did differentiate between the ability of the major political parties to handle different issues. The Democratic Party is preferred on health care, education, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and the environment. Republicans are favored on immigration and the debt and deficit, with smaller advantages on inflation and taxes and spending. Democrats are seen as best able to handle the concerns of people like the respondent. 

Which Party Is Best Able to Handle Various Issues

All responses in the poll reflect major differences in the views of Republicans and Democrats.

Analysis

“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”

“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over. It should be noted that this poll was statistically weighted to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll, which was a good year for Republicans. In polls close to elections, IPOR weights to match the most recent relevant exit poll because it is a more objective standard than estimating which groups we think are more or less likely to vote.”

“With regard to President Trump, respondents appear to steadfastly  like or dislike him, regardless of the issue. They differentiate, however, between the parties when it comes to handling specific issues. As has been true for many years now, Republicans and Democrats appear to be living on different planets in terms of how they view politics, elected officials, and candidates.” 

Methodology 

The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15, 2025. All data was collected by the Siena Research Institute at Siena University in Loudonville, New York. A total of 702 completed interviews came from random telephone calls and texts to 369 Virginians, and 333 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Cellphones constituted 66% of the completed phone and text to web interviews.  

Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cellphone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns in Virginia. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE, and the cellphone sample was obtained from Marketing Systems Group (MSG). Cint USA, Inc, facilitated the online panel with completion time and attention check questions used for quality control. 

Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions are asked of online respondents, including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions asking the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses.”

Questions answered by the sample of 702 respondents are subject to a weighted margin of error (including design effect) of plus or minus 4.30% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 4.30 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cellphone. For the sample of 602 likely voters, the margin of error is 4.39%. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the margin of error is higher. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error, and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. 

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, education, and political party. Weighting was done to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll. The design effect was 1.361 for the larger sample of 702, while it was 1.431 for the 602 likely voters.

A copy of the questions and all toplines may be found here. 

IPOR is an independent, nonpartisan research institute and subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. The Roanoke College Poll is paid for by Roanoke College as a public service. 

More information about the Roanoke College Poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, at wilson@roanoke.edu or the Roanoke College Marketing and Communications Office at rcnews@roanoke.edu.  

roanoke.edu/IPOR